Forbes: Does quantum technology threaten the encryption industry? But it is more likely an opportunity
Original Title: Quantum Advances Are An Opportunity For Crypto
Original Author: Sean Stein Smith, Forbes
Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News
Currently, the crypto industry is already overwhelmed by public opinion turmoil, geopolitical conflicts, and financial instability, and Google's latest research has brought new challenges to this field: the timeline for the practical implementation of quantum computing is continuously being advanced.
For years, the potential threats posed by quantum computing have been discussed, debated, and researched within the industry, and blockchain developers have long been working on developing quantum-resistant cryptographic technologies. However, what truly stirs the investment market is the speed of technological iteration. The Google Quantum AI team pointed out that quantum computers need less than 500,000 qubits to crack the elliptic curve cryptography algorithm used by btc-42">Bitcoin—this encryption method has long been recognized as the most secure. Setting aside the technical parameters of qubits, the key fact is that the latest estimates of the required number of qubits are far lower than previously expected, which brings the potential "life-and-death test" for the blockchain ecosystem forward to 2029.
In addition to Bitcoin potentially exposing security vulnerabilities in just 9 minutes, another report focused on the risks faced by Ethereum: the network has up to 5 potential attack vectors, which, if exploited, could jeopardize approximately $100 billion in DeFi and tokenized assets.
It should be clarified that the quantum computers mentioned in these research reports have not yet truly emerged and remain at a theoretical level. However, the related discussions have led to tokens and protocols with quantum-resistant characteristics achieving double-digit increases. Additionally, tokens considered "quantum-compatible," which adopt more advanced protocols like zero-knowledge proofs, have also benefited from this wave of attention.
Setting aside speculative emotions and panic-driven surges, as quantum technology continues to permeate broader financial markets, investors should recognize some key experiences and insights.
Quantum risks are no longer theoretical, which is actually a good thing
Discussions surrounding quantum computing and cryptocurrencies have shifted from abstract risks to quantifiable real threats.
New research shows that quantum systems may only need between 10,000 to 26,000 qubits to break the currently widely used encryption standards, a significant decrease from previous estimates in the millions. More importantly, the attack scenarios are no longer hypothetical. Researchers have outlined some attack methods: private keys can be extracted from ongoing transactions within minutes, and funds can even be transferred before transaction confirmation.
This reality has redefined the core issues for investors, auditing firms, and policymakers: the risk is no longer just "will quantum computing emerge," but whether existing systems can migrate quickly enough to post-quantum cryptographic frameworks. Estimates suggest that "quantum nodes" could arrive as early as 2029, leaving the industry with a time window shorter than most financial infrastructure upgrade cycles.
From a practical perspective, the market is facing a typical accounting and valuation dilemma: it needs to recognize and assess potential liabilities before they convert into actual losses.
The market is already pricing in the quantum transition
Although underlying threats are gradually becoming apparent, market behavior indicates that participants are not waiting for the situation to clarify. Tokens and projects emphasizing quantum resistance have seen increases nearing 50%, indicating that capital is proactively positioning itself in defensive infrastructure and related projects.
This is a common pattern in financial markets: investors often factor in structural risks into prices before they materialize. In the current context, this means capital will flow towards quantum-resistant cryptographic technologies, blockchain protocols that have completed upgrades, and participants focused on security construction in this field.
Meanwhile, despite increasingly clear warnings, the prices of mainstream crypto assets remain relatively stable. This reflects a growing consensus in the market: this transformation will be completed through upgrades at the protocol level, rather than leading to the industry's demise.
For accounting and auditing professionals, this introduces a new dimension to valuation analysis. Digital assets must contend not only with market volatility and regulatory changes but also with the risk of technological obsolescence—these risks must be disclosed, modeled, and stress-tested.
The crypto industry is unlikely to perish, but the underlying architecture will be restructured
Despite the increasingly urgent warnings, the overall conclusion from various studies and industry commentary is quite clear: quantum computing will not overturn blockchain but will force it to restructure its security systems. Recent analyses have pointed out multiple attack paths, including rapid exploitation of transaction-layer vulnerabilities and slow attacks on dormant wallets with exposed keys.
At the same time, ongoing research in the post-quantum cryptography field indicates that viable countermeasures already exist, though their level of widespread application remains uneven.
Importantly, any observer, investor, or policy advocate can attest: blockchain systems are not static. Protocol upgrades, hard forks, and migrations of cryptographic algorithms have long been part of the ecosystem's operational mechanisms. Compared to traditional financial infrastructure, this adaptability itself is a structural advantage.
Quantum computing does not bring fatal flaws but rather a forced opportunity for advancement. The ultimate winners will not be those who attempt to evade risks but those who drive transformation, embedding quantum resistance into governance, information disclosure, and technical design before the threats fully materialize.
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